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News video games 06 May 2022, 13:55

author: Miriam Moszczynska

Algorithm Predicts Who Will Win MSI 2022 in LoL

MSI 2022 starts soon and a special algorithm can help esports fans predict the winner. Based on data from regional leagues, it predicts the chances of winning the tournament for particular teams.

The Mid-Season Invitational 2022 esports tournament is about to begin in League of Legends. As a result, fans of the online competition are typing their favorites. This time a special algorithm is helping to determine the winning team.

It worked once, so why not try again

As written in a post by one Reddit user, it took the team from Factor.gg about a year to make the algorithm. The mechanism was already tested earlier on the occasion of World Cup 2021, when it successfully predicted the knockout phase of the tournament.

This year the team decided to try their luck again, refining the algorithm and then publishing the prediction table on the aforementioned website. The current table looks like this:

Algorithm Predicts Who Will Win MSI 2022 in LoL - picture #1
Source: Factor.gg

As you can see, the Korean team T1 has the best chance to win. Next in the table is the Chinese Royal Never Give Up. Interestingly, the difference between T1 and RNG reaches almost 30%, which shows the good shape of the Korean team.

Europe's G2 Esports is only in third place, having similar odds to Evil Geniuses from North America, located a spot below.

How does the algorithm work?

The code was dismantled into basic elements in an article on the aforementioned website, but the author of the post decided to dispel some basic doubts.

  1. The POWR (Performance Objectively Weighted and Rated) system is based mainly on data that comes from regional games.
  2. It uses the most detailed data that can be accessed after a match. It allows for comparison of players regardless of their role, or prioritization of the most recent results to make predictions as accurate as possible.
  3. In contrast, the algorithm responsible for predicting which team will be victorious in the entire tournament does not focus as much on regional values. The author unfortunately did not provide more information about this part of the algorithm.
  4. The table is supposed to be updated after each phase of MSI 2022, so you'll be able to keep track of how the algorithm reacts to real-world results during the tournament.

Obviously, the author could not share a detailed description of the mechanism, after all, know-how is not something that should be revealed easily. Still, based on the general information one can get the impression that the algorithm is quite complicated in terms of the data it analyzes.

How effective it will turn out in action, we will see during the MSI 2022 tournament, which starts on May 10. Schedule of the tournament is available in a special tab on the official website of LoL.

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