- Take-Two is predicting big revenue increases before March 31, 2024;
- The projected results are so large that analysts are confident that they take into account the anticipated revenue from the sales of GTA 6;
- Based on this information, analysts suggest that GTA 6 will be released between April 1, 2023 and March 31, 2024.
The last few years have been filled with rumors about Grand Theft Auto 6. Their source were mainly leakers and it's hard to judge their credibility since the game hasn't been officially announced yet. The new speculations are different, however, as they are based on stock market announcements. They show that the release of GTA 6 could take place in early 2024 at the latest.
The basis for this speculation comes from comments made by people holding executive positions at Take-Two Interactive. When discussing the recent acquisition of Zynga, they convinced investors that the publisher's total revenue growth through the end of fiscal year 2024 will be 14% year on year. That doesn't mean that there will be such a jump every year, just that when you divide the total growth over the next three years it will come out to about 14% per year.
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What does all this have to do with GTA 6? Analysts stress that publishers are reluctant to make such long-term promises of growth, especially reaching such levels. They do it only when they are very sure of themselves. Doug Creutz of the Cowen Group calculated that it would take an additional $9 billion in game revenue to reach that goal. In Take-Two's case, there are very few IPs that could deliver such performance. Of those that we do know about, virtually the only reasonable candidate is Grand Theft Auto 6.
This wouldn't be the first time this publisher has done so. Take-Two Interactive has previously repeatedly included increases resulting from the release of games by Rockstar Games in forecasts published before these games were announced.
All this makes the analysts suspect the release of GTA 6 is planned for fiscal year 2024, which is the period from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024. Of course, keep in mind that plans are subject to change, for example, due to delays in development, and all these analyses apply only to Take-Two Interactive's current projections.
- Rockstar Games - official website