Dave Oshry of New Blood Interactive believes that „we live in a post-Baldur's Gate 3 world,” where publishers should know that players don't want „dumb RPGs”.
The gaming industry in the era after Baldur's Gate 3 needs to understand that players are not "dumb," and hardcore RPGs can sell in "50 million copies" over many months, says an independent publisher. However, not everyone shares his, let's call it, enthusiasm.
The return of Baldur's Gate was an important event for game fans, and for many reasons. It wasn't just a continuation of a series from two decades ago, but it was also made by genre veterans from Larian Studios. It's a classic turn-based RPG, a genre that may not be mainstream, but still has a dedicated fanbase. It's unlikely that anyone betting on candidates for game of the year and big sales hit would list turn-based "cRPG" next to "FPS", "action adventure game," or "aRPG." Without microtransactions and multiplayer mode, only with optional co-op.
Meanwhile, Baldur's Gate 3 was not only one of the biggest bestsellers on Steam in the month of its release, but it also received very good reviews from critics and players. The turn-based RPG studio Larian managed to attract over 875,000 simultaneous players. That's more than many a free-to-play game has achieved, more than many AAA titles.
As if that wasn't enough, even now, over 1.5 years after its launch on PCs and more than a year after its debut on consoles, Baldur’s Gate 3 is still one of the most popular and most frequently purchased titles on Steam. Right now, after the latest big update, the game is among the top 20 titles with the most players on Valve's platform. For almost any game, this would be an incredible result. For a classic RPG focusing on single player and optional co-op? Even the developers didn't believe in such a success.
After the amazing release on PC, we could hear the voices of developers and experts praising BG 3, but also pointing out that the production of Larian studio is a "unicorn" (as Jason Schreier from Bloomberg put it). The developer's unusual situation is clearly shown by the confusion around the nominations for The Game Awards 2023. Many people hesitated to consider Baldur’s Gate 3 as an "indie title" because even though Larian Studios is independent, it's definitely not a small team.
Of course, as we might expect, there were also cynical voices saying that BG 3 simply put other developers and publishers to shame. Dave Oshry, co-founder of New Blood Interactive (Ultrakill, Gloomwood), shares a similar opinion. During the Quad Damage podcast, he stated that "we live in a world after Baldur’s Gate 3," which showed that players "aren't dumb" and don't want "shallow RPGs." According to his words, publishers can sell "50 million copies" of a deep RPG, which can take even "months" to complete.
Such words were said in the context of a question about the possibility of creating Pillars of Eternity 3. Players have long been asking for a continuation of this series, but so far they have only received a spin-off (successful in commercial terms, judging by the information available so far). However, as Oshry claims, the success of Baldur’s Gate 3 should convince Microsoft to fund the third Pillars of Eternity.
However, not everyone believes that Baldur’s Gate 3 has made such a big mark on the gaming industry. Mark Darrah, a former BioWare veteran, believes that the impact of BG 3 on the market will be somewhat "silenced" compared to what people outside the industry expect. The developer draws attention to what Jason Schreier has already mentioned: the third Baldur's Gate was the result of a "perfect storm of factors," including external ones, independent of the actions of Larian studio. These take into account the cooperation with the Dungeons and Dragons brand at the peak of its popularity, as well as the "goodwill" and "unique licensing combo."
In this context, and considering the layoffs in 2024, it's doubtful whether Microsoft would be willing to invest a lot of money in a turn-based RPG. Especially when Josh Sawyer himself claims that he would have trouble matching BG 3, and even if he undertook such a task, he would really need a huge budget.
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Author: Jacob Blazewicz
Graduated with a master's degree in Polish Studies from the University of Warsaw with a thesis dedicated to this very subject. Started his adventure with gamepressure.com in 2015, writing in the Newsroom and later also in the film and technology sections (also contributed to the Encyclopedia). Interested in video games (and not only video games) for years. He began with platform games and, to this day, remains a big fan of them (including Metroidvania). Also shows interest in card games (including paper), fighting games, soulslikes, and basically everything about games as such. Marvels at pixelated characters from games dating back to the time of the Game Boy (if not older).